Every year, there are different types of calamities that strike the world. From floods to droughts and everything else in between—these calamities affect production of some of the world’s commodities, one of them, coffee.
In 2015, there were droughts that caused the decline in production of coffee beans. This was bad news for many who rely on a strong cup of espresso to start the day.
In the recent droughts that have befallen Brazil, it is expected that the coffee harvest will decrease. It is estimated that in 2016, production of both Arabica and Robusta coffee beans drop by almost 10%. What makes this worse is that global demand for coffee beans is also expected to increase during the year.
Experts have been worried for a while now that a shortage may occur, as Brazil has repeatedly suffered less than ideal growing conditions for coffee berries. The Foreign Agricultural Service report suggests that global coffee production of beans will become increasingly precious, with Brazil’s Robusta harvest predicted to decline 3.7 million bags to 13.3 million and Arabica to fall by1.2 million bags to 36.1 million.
While some will think about stock-piling, this shortage may not be immediately imminent because luckily Honduras, Indonesia and Vietnam are producing more coffee than usual. This may stave off a shortage for now, and as the European Union, which accounts for nearly half of the world’s bean imports, is forecast to increase 400,000 bags to a record 45.5 million. The second largest importer in the world is the United States, which is predicted to increase by 500,000 bags to 24 million, due to higher consumption.
In 2015, Brazil produced the most coffee beans with 30% of the total, Colombia was second with 21% market share and Vietnam came in third with 13%.
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